Objective
To investigate the influencing factors of adverse pregnancy outcomes in pregnant women with cervical incompetence(CI)during the second trimester after emergency cervical cerclage (ECC),and establish and validate a risk prediction model for adverse pregnancy outcomes.
Methods
A total of 208 CI pregnant women during the second trimester who were treated with vaginal ECC in Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Group Suqian Hospital from March 2017 to April 2023 were selected as study objects.According to the pregnancy o utcomes of CI pregnant women,they were included into study group (n=95,those with adverse pregnancy outcomes such as premature birth,neonatal asphyxia,and stillbirth)and control group (n=113,those with normal newborn deliveries)by retrospective method.The clinical data of pregnant women in two groups were collected retrospectively.Independent-samples t test or chi-square test was used to conduct univariate analysis of the influencing factors of adverse pregnancy outcomes in CI pregnant women during the second trimester after vaginal ECC,and multivariate unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to conduct multivariate analysis.The influencing factors screened out in multivariate analysis were used to construct a nomogram model for the risk of adverse pregnancy o utcomes in CI pregnant women during the second trimester after vaginal ECC,and to validate the model.This study has been approved by the Medical Ethics Committee of Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Group Suqian Hospital(Approval No.2024040).
Results
①Among the 208 pregnant women,95 had adverse pregnancy outcomes,including 23 cases of neonatal asphyxia,29 cases of premature delivery and 43 cases of stillbirth.②Results of univariate analysis showed that the proportions of previous history of miscarriage during the second trimester,multipara and singleton pregnancy and the cervical dilation diameter in ECC were significantly higher or longer than those in control group,while the proportion of first trimester miscarriage history and cervical length in ECC were significantly lower or shorter than those in control group,and all the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).③Results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the previous history of miscarriage during the second trimester (OR=6.721,95%CI:2.830-15.966,P <0.001),multipara(OR=9.397,95%CI:3.734-23.652,P<0.001)and large cervical dilation diameter in ECC (OR=11 562.700,95%CI:466.843-286 382.987,P <0.001)were independent risk factors for adverse pregnancy outcomes after vaginal ECC in CI women during the second trimester,while large cervical length in ECC was its independent protective factor (OR=0.042,95%CI:0.004-0.438,P=0.008).And a nomogram prediction model for predicting the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes in pregnant women with CI during the second trimester after vaginal ECC was established based on these four influencing factors.④Results of internal verification of the nomogram prediction model by Bootstrap method showed that C-index of the prediction model was 0.92(95%CI:0.86-0.97),which had good differentiation.Calibration curve analysis results showed that the ideal curve and calibration curve fit well.Hosmer-Lemeshow test results showed that there was no statistical significance between the risk of adverse pregnancy outcome predicted by the nomogram prediction model and the actual risk after vaginal ECC in CI pregnant women during the second trimester (χ2=0.24,P=0.624).The results of receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)analysis showed that the sensitivity and specificity of the model in predicting adverse pregnancy outcomes after vaginal ECC were 80.1%(95%CI:71.9%-87.3%)and 85.2%(95%CI:78.0%-92.1%),and the area under the curve(AUC)was 0.91(95%CI:0.87-0.95).
Conclusions
Previous history of miscarriage during the second trimester,multipara,cervical dilation diameter in ECC,and intraoperative cervical length in ECC are related to the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes after vaginal ECC in CI pregnant women during the second trimester.The construction of a nomogram model in this study is helpful for early screening of CI pregnant women at high risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes after transvaginal ECC.